This is a suitable message to the rioting students (and others) involved in the protests in recent weeks. They are about to learn the law of cause-and-effect.
As Guido has picked up (I honestly hadn't even thought to look for this myself) yesterday's poll by Angus Reid shows that Britons are "saddened, ashamed and disgusted" by the student demonstrations, and a substantial majority of those polled would be in favour of the introduction of water cannon to deal with the violence that usually accompanies those events. They also favour the so-called "kettling" technique by police.
Whether or not introducing water cannon would necessarily be the right way to go - and there are con's as well as pro's - something certainly needs to be done to protect bystanders and others, and property. It is only the behaviour at the protests so far that has produced this poll result; and it demonstrates very clearly that the students now have little public support.
Whose fault is that? It's a no-brainer, isn't it.
Cause and effect - QED!
Showing posts with label Opinion Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Opinion Polls. Show all posts
Friday, 31 December 2010
Saturday, 18 December 2010
Look in The Mirror
That's not good!
It has been a similar story at Ipsos MORI, whose poll just a few days ago showed (among other interesting figures) that only an eighth of Labour supporters think Ed is doing 'excellently', and a full fifth of those same Labour supporters think he is doing a poor job.
That's even worse than at ComRes!
Where else can Red now turn for support, if even the reddest of the red-tops produces this humiliatingly bad result and other pollsters confirm the negative messages?
Sunday, 12 December 2010
Party leaders' approval ratings
Obviously after this somewhat traumatic week, it is a good time to have a look at the levels of public approval (or otherwise) of the three main parties' leaders. Political Betting has been doing this recently, and it looks like a useful broad indicator of public opinion. Some say it is better than the standard "voting intention" opinion polls, though personally I feel they are probably of similar value and it's best to take both measures equally seriously.
Anyway, Political Betting's summary of the current position, taken from the last week's surveys, set out in easy-to-understand small tables (one per leader) and with figures sub-divided by party support of those polled, is very telling.
Inevitably the two coalition partners' leaders have dropped a little (fewer approve of them and more disapprove) and Labour's Ed Miliband has crept up a notch from doing - well, nothing really! He certainly hasn't been taking any kind of lead in any issue, though at least Alan Johnson is now less at odds with him over the Graduate Tax idea.
Perhaps the most interesting mini-facts are the support for each leader from his own party's supporters, as follows:
Specifically in today's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, the findings include that just a quarter of people think Ed Mili is "up to the job", and just 12 % (i.e. under an eighth) of people think he is a better option than his brother, David the banana-man.
Especially in a week that one might have thought (at least from watching the BBC or reading The Guardian) would have swung opinion much more in Labour's direction, or at least against Clegg and Cameron, this is a surprisingly stable overall situation, and satisfying news for the Coalition party leaders.
It certainly isn't good news for Red Ed!
Anyway, Political Betting's summary of the current position, taken from the last week's surveys, set out in easy-to-understand small tables (one per leader) and with figures sub-divided by party support of those polled, is very telling.
Inevitably the two coalition partners' leaders have dropped a little (fewer approve of them and more disapprove) and Labour's Ed Miliband has crept up a notch from doing - well, nothing really! He certainly hasn't been taking any kind of lead in any issue, though at least Alan Johnson is now less at odds with him over the Graduate Tax idea.
Perhaps the most interesting mini-facts are the support for each leader from his own party's supporters, as follows:
- David Cameron - 96% of Tory supporters think he is doing well
- Ed Miliband - 62% of Labour supporters think he is doing well
- Nick Clegg - 75% of Lib Dem supporters think he is doing well
Specifically in today's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, the findings include that just a quarter of people think Ed Mili is "up to the job", and just 12 % (i.e. under an eighth) of people think he is a better option than his brother, David the banana-man.
Especially in a week that one might have thought (at least from watching the BBC or reading The Guardian) would have swung opinion much more in Labour's direction, or at least against Clegg and Cameron, this is a surprisingly stable overall situation, and satisfying news for the Coalition party leaders.
It certainly isn't good news for Red Ed!
Saturday, 30 October 2010
Housing Benefit - public opinion
It is interesting to note that, in this evening's YouGov poll tables for the Sunday Times, the result for the inevitable additional question regarding the housing benefit cap was almost three-quarters (72%) in favour, and just 16% against, with 13% "don't know". Even more interesting, 52% of Labour supporters agreed with the policy as against 35% disagreeing.
It's not all good news for the Coalition, though. Their overall approval rating is a nett minus one percent; and several percent more believe the deficit reduction should be delayed than those considering it should be tackled now. Those latter results are what I (and a number of others) expected at around this time, and probably to worsen considerably as the public spending restraints start to have an impact on people's lives.
However, on specific policies, I'd expect them to be sufficiently well argued for by the Coalition that the thinking public will understand them and see that, even if not perfect, they are the right approach and necessary. Thus we see an apparent contradiction in the poll results.
Just about everyone nowadays realises how bad our benefits system has been for a number of years and accepts sensible reforms, especially as that will provide more money for better uses than much of what it has been spent on during the Labour years. Thus there is a self-interest in supporting such specific changes. That self-interest opposes the principle of taking away money from "the public sector", though.
Some of this is down to media and political spin, such as the Green Party's assertion (appearing in local newspapers' letters columns this month) that every public sector job 'supports' one private sector job somehow. Their argument is specious and easily demolished, of course, but the less bright and inexperienced in the real world will often be taken in by such suggestions.
I am sure the Greens (and those like them, such as Labour and the Unions) are well aware that they are, of necessity, targeting the ignorant, but that there are enough of them to make a difference in the polls and, ultimately, at actual elections. It's not easy to combat this, but we have to do our best.
For a start, it should be noted that this policy was in Labour's own manifesto, as written by one Ed Miliband...
It's not all good news for the Coalition, though. Their overall approval rating is a nett minus one percent; and several percent more believe the deficit reduction should be delayed than those considering it should be tackled now. Those latter results are what I (and a number of others) expected at around this time, and probably to worsen considerably as the public spending restraints start to have an impact on people's lives.
However, on specific policies, I'd expect them to be sufficiently well argued for by the Coalition that the thinking public will understand them and see that, even if not perfect, they are the right approach and necessary. Thus we see an apparent contradiction in the poll results.
Just about everyone nowadays realises how bad our benefits system has been for a number of years and accepts sensible reforms, especially as that will provide more money for better uses than much of what it has been spent on during the Labour years. Thus there is a self-interest in supporting such specific changes. That self-interest opposes the principle of taking away money from "the public sector", though.
Some of this is down to media and political spin, such as the Green Party's assertion (appearing in local newspapers' letters columns this month) that every public sector job 'supports' one private sector job somehow. Their argument is specious and easily demolished, of course, but the less bright and inexperienced in the real world will often be taken in by such suggestions.
I am sure the Greens (and those like them, such as Labour and the Unions) are well aware that they are, of necessity, targeting the ignorant, but that there are enough of them to make a difference in the polls and, ultimately, at actual elections. It's not easy to combat this, but we have to do our best.
For a start, it should be noted that this policy was in Labour's own manifesto, as written by one Ed Miliband...
Saturday, 9 October 2010
The conference season
So, now that it's all over for another year and the dust has settled, just what effect did the three big party conferences have?
Okay, let's look at the opinion polls conducted the conference season. As Dr Wells shows at UK Polling Report, there were small changes during each party's conference week, producing a modest boost to their "voting intention" figures; but at the end of it all everything seems to be back more or less as it was before the conference season started.
The graph in Dr Wells' post shows these boosts during each conference (note the background colour for the dates of each event) and then the slow fall-back to how they had been before. If the same had happened outside of the conference season it is all just about within normal sample variations anyway - it really wasn't that significant.
However, it is by looking at other aspects of the opinion polls, which include a number of varied questions, that a different message emerges. There it seems that the Conservatives did best in regard to how the public view their approach to public spending reductions (or at least an initial slowing, to bring it under control). The shifts (both pro-Tory and anti-Labour) have resulted in the best results for the Blues in this area for something like four months.
Overall, then, it has been a bit like watching some of the traffic on a three-lane road switch lanes for a while and then going back to their original lanes; but with the main policy issues telling a different story. It also has to be said that the Tory conference was by far the best this year, and really came alive on several occasions which the other two rarely came even close to doing.
Okay, let's look at the opinion polls conducted the conference season. As Dr Wells shows at UK Polling Report, there were small changes during each party's conference week, producing a modest boost to their "voting intention" figures; but at the end of it all everything seems to be back more or less as it was before the conference season started.
The graph in Dr Wells' post shows these boosts during each conference (note the background colour for the dates of each event) and then the slow fall-back to how they had been before. If the same had happened outside of the conference season it is all just about within normal sample variations anyway - it really wasn't that significant.
However, it is by looking at other aspects of the opinion polls, which include a number of varied questions, that a different message emerges. There it seems that the Conservatives did best in regard to how the public view their approach to public spending reductions (or at least an initial slowing, to bring it under control). The shifts (both pro-Tory and anti-Labour) have resulted in the best results for the Blues in this area for something like four months.
Overall, then, it has been a bit like watching some of the traffic on a three-lane road switch lanes for a while and then going back to their original lanes; but with the main policy issues telling a different story. It also has to be said that the Tory conference was by far the best this year, and really came alive on several occasions which the other two rarely came even close to doing.
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